Spammer math is basically any variation of the following line of reasoning: if I get one sale from a send to one thousand messages that means that I will get one hundred sales sending to one hundred thousand messages and so on until infinity. It can be expressed as (s=cm) where s is sales, c is the conversation rate, and m is the number of messages sent.
This model is based on the idea that sales will scale at a constant multiplier relative to messages sent. The foil here is probability. The assumption is that each message sent has the exact same independent probability of converting. This is false because as the number of messages increases so too does the probability of bounces and complaints, which increases the probability of sender reputation problems which in turn causes the probability of conversions to increasingly diminish. In economics this is often referred to as the law of diminishing returns.
The model requires ever increasing volumes of fresh email addresses to make the math work. Only low-quality data sources can provide the volumes needed, which in turn sabotage deliverability, requiring more new contacts…
You don’t have to be pumping penny stocks to get sucked into this fallacy. Legitimate organizations can also fall down this rabbit hole simply because they don’t know better or are badly advised.
Senders will try to beat the fallacy by using multiple domains and sending sources. This doesn’t change the math or the outcomes and just digs the hole deeper and deeper.
Spammer math doesn’t work and the hint’s in the name. Just because you may hit the occasional diamond in the rough doesn’t mean it‘s a viable or sustainable strategy for any sender.
The solution - have a proper strategy for scaling the growth of your email program.